Model Choice for Quantitative Health Impact Assessment and Modelling: An Expert Consultation and Narrative Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: Health impact assessment (HIA) is a widely used process that aims to identify the health impacts, positive or negative, of a policy or intervention that is not necessarily placed in the health sector. Most HIAs are done prospectively and aim to forecast expected health impacts under assumed policy implementation. HIAs may quantitatively and/ or qualitatively assess health impacts, with this study focusing on the former. A variety of quantitative modelling methods exist that are used for forecasting health impacts, however, they differ in application area, data requirements, assumptions, risk modelling, complexities, limitations, strengths, and comprehensibility. We reviewed relevant models, so as to provide public health researchers with considerations for HIA model choice. METHODS: Based on an HIA expert consultation, combined with a narrative literature review, we identified the most relevant models that can be used for health impact forecasting. We narratively and comparatively reviewed the models, according to their fields of application, their configuration and purposes, counterfactual scenarios, underlying assumptions, health risk modelling, limitations and strengths. RESULTS: Seven relevant models for health impacts forecasting were identified, consisting of (i) comparative risk assessment (CRA), (ii) time series analysis (TSA), (iii) compartmental models (CMs), (iv) structural models (SMs), (v) agent-based models (ABMs), (vi) microsimulations (MS), and (vii) artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML). These models represent a variety in approaches and vary in the fields of HIA application, complexity and comprehensibility. We provide a set of criteria for HIA model choice. Researchers must consider that model input assumptions match the available data and parameter structures, the available resources, and that model outputs match the research question, meet expectations and are comprehensible to end-users. CONCLUSION: The reviewed models have specific characteristics, related to available data and parameter structures, computational implementation, interpretation and comprehensibility, which the researcher should critically consider before HIA model choice.

Social determinants of health (inequities): an european snapshot and stimuli for action / Determinantes sociales de la salud (inequidades): situación europea y estímulo para la acción

Health states are the result of the effect of multiple social determinants of health (SDOH). Health inequities appear as a consequence of the adverse interaction of the SDOH, leading to avoidable and therefore unfair health disparities between and within populations. Although the European population achieves higher levels of health and life expectancy than ever before, health inequities between and within European countries are still widespread and even increasing in some areas. The current economic crisis further shows significant negative impacts on the SDOH and consequently on the health of populations. Furthermore, data suggests that governmental responses of several European countries to the crisis failed to provide sustainable and comprehensive solutions as they do not take health into consideration. However, strong economic, social and health systems seem to act preventatively on negative effects on SDOH and health itself. Moreover, intersectoral governance structures and Health Impact Assessments (HIA) can foster the narrowing of unfair health gaps.

Los estados de salud son resultado del efecto de los múltiples factores sociales determinantes de la salud. Las inequidades en salud aparecen como consecuencia de la interacción adversa de dichos factores determinantes, que llevan a disparidades en salud entre diversas poblaciones y entre integrantes de una misma población, las cuales pueden catalogarse como injustas y evitables. Aunque la población europea ha alcanzado altos niveles de salud y esperanza de vida como nunca antes, las inequidades en salud entre y dentro de los países europeos se encuentran aun ampliamente extendidas y en incremento en algunas áreas. La crisis económica actual, además, muestra impactos negativos significativos sobre los factores determinantes sociales de la salud y, por consiguiente, sobre la salud de las poblaciones. Adicionalmente, la información actual sugiere que las respuestas gubernamentales de varios países europeos ante la crisis fallaron en su objetivo de proveer soluciones integrales y sostenibles, en la medida en que estas no toman en cuenta a la salud. Sin embargo, los sistemas de salud, sociales y económicos sólidos parecen actuar preventivamente ante los efectos negativos sobre los factores sociales determinantes de la salud y sobre la salud misma. Por otra parte, el desarrollo de estructuras gubernamentales intersectoriales y de estrategias como la evaluación de impacto en salud, pueden fomentar la reducción de disparidades en salud consideradas como injustas.